MODELIZATION OF MARITIME TRANSPORT SCHEMES OF UKRAINE IN MODERN CONDITIONS BASED ON MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

Based on the analysis of the current state of maritime transport in Ukraine, new options for cargo delivery schemes have been developed, knowing the starting and ending points. Transportation routes using several modes of transport have been described. Ukraine’s proposal to amend the existing traffic distribution systems “Approaches to the ports of Odesa and Illichivsk” and “Between the ports of Odesa and Illichivsk” by combining them into a single traffic distribution system “Approaches to the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdenny” has been considered. The updated traffic distribution system establishes the safest routes in the deepest waters for vessels heading to and from the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, Pivdenny, as well as towards the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson. Traffic distribution systems are designed in such a way as to simplify the traffic flow patterns in the convergence/divergence zones and to organize the movement of vessels entering/exiting three ports – Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi in the most optimal way.Analysis of the existing theory of mathematical analysis suggested that in our case the most optimal is the transport gravity model. It describes the interaction between spatial objects in the form of a mathematical analysis of transport flows, it is based on an analogy with Newton’s law of universal gravitation, which connects the force of attraction between two bodies of different masses and the distance between them.The developed transport gravity model connects the intensity of the transport flow with its volume of shipments, or movements from one area of a certain volume of shipments that have reached the destination area with the costs of movement.The conducted research will allow to use the gravity model and the correspondence calculation apparatus to develop a simulation model of cargo turnover in the maritime transport system of Ukraine. The methodology used opens up new opportunities for solving a group of forecasting tasks – such as determining the optimal number of vessels, determining the busiest port on the line, the number of transported cargoes, and delivery time.