ANALYTICAL CALCULATION OF THE RISK ASSESSMENTS OF MARINE AND MULTIMODAL ECOLOGICAL-ORIENTED TRANSPORTATION, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RELIABILITY OF TECHNICAL MEANS AND STEERING OF THE SHIP IN CASE OF EMERGENCIES IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The paper presents an analysis and a systematic approach to determining the essence of the concept of «intermodal» and «multimodal» transportation, the probability of occurrence and the probability of the severity of unforeseen or foreseeable consequences from the point of view of the IMO and the ISO8402:1995/BS 4778 standard. Analytical methods of the system approach, probability theory, methods of mathematical statistics and expert evaluations were used in theoretical studies. The problems of the development of environmentally-oriented combined transportation, taking into account the reliability of the operation of technical means and steering control of the ship in the event of emergency situations, have been identified. The reasons for the sustainable development of multimodal transportation in Ukraine are analyzed, and ways of their practical solution are proposed. On the basis of the proposed research methods, the transport corridors of the TEN-T network of the countries of Western Europe and the proposals of the European Commission regarding the change of the trans-European transport network (TEN-T), which includes Ukrainian logistics routes, have been worked out. The paper states that in the practice of risk assessment, expert assessment methods are mainly used. However, experts also refer to statistical data, if any. Meanwhile, if we talk about the creation of risk management systems, then one of the necessary elements of such systems should be considered a system of monitoring, collection and systematization of statistical data regarding accidents, loss/damage of goods, deaths of people, etc. The two main components of the route are considered on the example of multimodal cargo transportation along the «Baltic Sea-Adriatic Sea and Rhine-Danube» route. Based on the accident analysis, the root causes of accidents are established and the risk assessment of accidents and traffic accidents in case of the joint occurrence of two or more dependent events is considered, an example of the practical implementation of the proposed method is given. Analytical calculation of risk assessments of maritime and multimodal environmentally-oriented transportation, taking into account the reliability of technical equipment and ship steering in the event of emergency situations in Ukraine, proved that the level of acceptable risk is determined by comparing the risk price with the amount of expected profit that the ship owner will receive during the voyage . If the value of the expected profit is higher than the risk price, such a risk can be considered acceptable (it is assumed that there is no threat to people's lives).