THREAT AND VIOLATOR MODELS OF THE AUTONOMOUS SYSTEM OF DIFFERENTIAL CORRECTION OF GLOBAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEMS

Abstract

This paper presents the development of a formalized threat model and adversary model for an Autonomous Differential Global Navigation Satellite System (Autonomous DGNSS), which is classified as part of critical information infrastructure. A structured adversary model has been created, incorporating attacker types, motivations, technical resources, access levels, and potential attack techniques. A comprehensive threat model is proposed, covering all system assets of the Autonomous DGNSS, including GNSS receivers at both control and correction stations and the central system, data processing centers, cryptographic infrastructure, data transmission channels, correction data distribution servers, and end users. The threat model is constructed using a combined methodological approach that integrates modern frameworks such as PASTA (Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis), STRIDE, and MITRE ATT&CK (Enterprise and ICS profiles). Representative multivector attack scenarios have been developed, taking into account GPS spoofing, GPS jamming, attacks on information and communication infrastructure, cryptosystems, software vulnerabilities, and physical components of the system. Particular attention is paid to ensuring the system’s cryptographic resilience in the post- quantum era by implementing national post-quantum cryptographic algorithms (Kalyna, Skelia, Vershyna, Kupyna) and utilizing quantum random number generators (QRNG) within the key management infrastructure. The paper includes an impact assessment of potential attack scenarios and provides a comprehensive set of protection measures for the Autonomous DGNSS, incorporating international standards such as ISO/IEC 27001, IEC 62443, NIST SP 800-30/53, as well as national regulations (ND TZI, Ukraine). The proposed methodology enables the design of practically applicable and resilient architectures for Autonomous Differential GNSS systems and other elements of critical infrastructure, with consideration for emerging post-quantum cryptographic challenges.