MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE: ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FORECAST GUIDELINES

Abstract

Military actions on the territory of Ukraine cause significant fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators, such as total public debt and its ratio to GDP, inflation and devaluation indices, unemployment rates, and minimum wage indicators. These indicators directly affect the development and scaling of enterprises in Ukraine. The purpose of this article is to identify and analyze the impact of key macroeconomic determinants on the development of entrepreneurship in Ukraine, as well to justify directions for improving state policy on creating favorable conditions for its functioning. The article examines the dynamics of Ukraine’s total public debt and GDP, as well as the ratio of total public debt to GDP. The main consequences of the growth of aggregate public debt are an increase in domestic and external borrowing to finance defense needs and social expenditures, as well as devaluation processes that have affected the nominal valuation of debt in national currency. An analysis of the inflation index and the hryvnia devaluation index relative to the US dollar is provided. The dynamics of the number of unemployed, which tends to decrease, are presented. This indicates the transition of some of the unemployed to informal employment and the adaptation of the labor market to new conditions of activity. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of the minimum wage in Ukraine and some European countries was carried out. This analysis indicates a low level of social standards in Ukraine compared to European Union countries. A description of the forecast for Ukraine’s economic and social development for 2026-2028, developed by the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, is provided. In order to support and stimulate the development of entrepreneurship in Ukraine, the following instruments of state support are proposed: grant programs, preferential lending, raising the level of education of the population, and the need to make effective management decisions.