ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL OF THE INTERVAL CONCEPT IN IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF TRANSPORT DEMAND MODELING RESULTS

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to evaluate the results of modeling random passenger origin–destination matrices within the framework of the interval concept for forming transport demand for urban public transport trips, using a stepwise method for generating passenger OD-matrices. The scientific novelty of the research lies in improving the approach to forming passenger OD-matrices by applying a stepwise random generation method that ensures guaranteed compliance with a system of basic and additional constraints, including the capacities of transport zones for passenger departures and arrivals, as well as the population settlement curve. This makes it possible to significantly narrow the search interval of possible transport demand states. The research results include the generation of a set of random passenger OD-matrices for the transport demand model of the Kharkiv city, their interval-based evaluation using indicators of transport work and average trip length, and the identification of the most probable states of the correspondence matrices. It has been established that the use of the stepwise generation method provides a substantial reduction in the range of possible values of the evaluation parameters compared with traditional approaches and extreme matrix variants, thereby increasing the reliability of transport demand modeling results. The conclusions indicate that the application of the stepwise method for generating passenger OD-matrices improves the accuracy, stability, and predictive reliability of transport demand models within the interval concept, ensures a more realistic reproduction of passenger travel patterns, and provides a robust foundation for substantiating management decisions in the planning and development of urban public transport systems.