CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD CONTAINER FLEET IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL TRANSFORMATION OF MARITIME TRANSPORT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35546/kntu2078-4481.2026.2.3Keywords:
container fleet, container ship classes, decarbonization, container fleet development forecast, alternative fuels, dual-fuel enginesAbstract
The article examines the current state of the global container fleet, analyzes its quantitative, structural, and technological characteristics, and identifies prospects for development in the context of global transformation of maritime transport. The relevance of the topic is justified given the growing role of containerization in the formation of international supply chains and ensuring more than half of the world's trade turnover in terms of value. The evolution of container ships and the current classification by capacity classes, reflecting the trend towards larger tonnage and the realization of economies of scale, are considered. It has been established that in 2020–2025, the global container fleet showed significant growth: the total capacity exceeded 30 million TEU, with the rate of increase in carrying capacity outpacing the rate of increase in the number of ships. This confirms a structural shift towards the large-tonnage segment, in particular ULCV class vessels.
The demographic structure of the fleet was analyzed and a significant share of vessels over 20 years old was identified, which creates the conditions for accelerated tonnage renewal. The order book for container ships was examined and a concentration of newbuildings in the medium and large classes was identified, indicating further structural transformation of the fleet. Special attention is paid to decarbonization processes: the share of ships with alternative or dual-fuel engines will increase to 12% in 2025.
Based on a scenario approach, a forecast has been developed for 2030, which predicts an increase in the share of the alternative fleet to 23–25% in the baseline scenario and over 30% in the accelerated development scenario. The average annual growth rate of the indicator was calculated and the impact of regulatory, technological, and economic factors on the speed of transformation of the industry was determined.
It has been established that the further development of the container fleet will be determined by a combination of tonnage consolidation, greening, digitalization of management, and possible cyclical market fluctuations. It has been concluded that the period 2025–2030 will be decisive for the transition of container shipping to an innovative and environmentally friendly development model.
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