APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING TO PREDICTION OF TAXES RECEIVED BY THE CUSTOMS POST DEPENDING ON THE NUMBER OF CUSTOMS DECLARATIONS COMPLETED

Abstract

The paper considers the issue of forecasting the receipt of customs revenues from the payment of customs payments depending on the number of completed customs declarations in various customs regimes. The customs sphere is one of the most important sectors in the need to make immediate and operational decisions related to economic changes regarding the crossing of the state customs border and the preparation of customs declarations. Materials related to the results of the activities of one of the customs posts in Kyiv were used for a detailed analysis and the possibility of performing the forecast of customs receipts by the customs post. In practice, during the study of economic phenomena related to the customs taxation of goods during their import (import) and export (export) and the processes of payment of customs payments, changes in these phenomena are observed under the influence of not one, but several factors, therefore, the study of the changes that occur is a relevant issue.. A mathematical model for forecasting customs revenues from the payment of customs payments is presented. The method of evaluating the parameters of the model is used for the successful construction of a mathematical model for forecasting customs revenues and the features of the economic information provided by the customs post are taken into account in order to quantitatively measure the relationships between the investigated processes (quantitative indicator of customs revenues depending on the number of completed customs declarations in different customs regimes) and the possibility of further forecasting. An economically correct statement of the problem and the possibility of further interpretation of the obtained results are important components of the success of the research along with the logically correct formal application of the available mathematical tools. A quantitative analysis of the work of the personnel of one of the customs clearance departments of the customs post was carried out for the possibility of forecasting the amount of taxes and fees, depending on the accrued customs payments.An interpretation of model parameter estimates is provided.