RESEARCH ON METHODS OF MODELING EVACUATION SCENARIOS IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

Abstract

The article examines modern approaches to modeling population evacuation scenarios in emergency situations, including natural disasters, technological accidents, and military actions. The main modeling methods, their advantages, and limitations are analyzed, specifically mathematical modeling, agent-based modeling, and the use of geoinformation systems (GIS). Particular attention is given to the adaptation of these methods to the conditions of martial law in Ukraine. Examples of applying these methods to enhance the effectiveness of evacuation measures are provided. The research results can be used to improve evacuation planning. The article also highlights the necessity of developing a hybrid model that combines the advantages of existing models, particularly incorporating agent-based modeling to account for human behavior, mathematical modeling to identify optimal evacuation routes, and GIS for spatial visualization and analysis. The research confirms the significant potential for improving evacuation measures through the integration of economic-mathematical models and advanced information technologies. A methodology for forming adaptive evacuation scenarios has been developed, which considers not only technical and physical conditions but also social and behavioral aspects. The practical application of such scenarios contributes to reducing risks, optimizing resources, and increasing the efficiency of evacuation measures in complex and unpredictable situations. The need to refine the legal framework is also emphasized, particularly in terms of unifying terminology, improving decision-making criteria for evacuations, and integrating international experience into Ukrainian practice. The results can be utilized by government authorities and local administrations to enhance strategic planning in civil protection measures.