USING PROBABILITY THEORY TO ANALYZE AND OPTIMIZE BUSINESS PROCESSES

Abstract

In today’s business world, one of the main challenges is constant uncertainty, which can arise due to changing market conditions, competitor behavior, global progress, and other factors. In project management, it is crucial to identify risks in a timely manner when assessing the feasibility of making certain decisions. The goal of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary information and data to make informed decisions about participating in a project and to develop measures to protect against possible financial losses. Probability theory allows for risk assessment under such circumstances, but building accurate models requires detailed data and a significant amount of prior information, which is not always available. Cases where data is incomplete or inaccurate can lead to erroneous forecasts and unjustified decisions. Therefore, managing risks associated with development is an essential part of business analysis. This ensures that potential challenges and uncertainties do not hinder the progress or success of a project. Business analysts (BA) play a key role in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks to achieve project goals.To effectively address complex problems related to probabilistic modeling and risk management, business analysts and programmers often turn to modern programming languages. Documenting calculation results allows analysts to store data on risk probabilities, while regularly updating models based on new data ensures their relevance. This article highlights key topics covering the primary responsibilities and effective risk management methods of business analysts through the use of probability theory. Applying probability theory to risk assessment is an effective method for forecasting and ensuring the resilience of business projects. It is crucial that the risk assessment process is based on reliable and accurate data, enabling businesses to reduce the likelihood of making incorrect decisions and minimize potential losses.