THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF FORECASTING THE ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ENTERPRISE UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF A DYNAMIC OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

The article examines the theoretical aspects of forecasting the economic sustainability of the enterprise. It is substantiated that without the use of effective forecasting, the enterprise may not have time to adapt to dynamic changes in the operating environment and may lose the opportunity to take a leading position due to insufficient preparation for dynamic changes.The essence of forecasting economic stability and the relevance of this issue for improving the competitive position on the market under the conditions of constant influence of external and internal factors have been determined. Forecasting methods were analyzed and it was noted that the combined approach allows you to take into account various aspects of the data that may not be taken into account by one method, which allows you to compensate for the shortcomings of one method with another and reduce the likelihood of errors that may arise due to the specifics of a specific model.As a result, it is proposed to use the integral weighting factor when justifying the choice of the method of forecasting the economic sustainability of the enterprise. It is proposed to determine the level of economic stability in the conditions of the dynamic environment of the functioning of enterprises based on the growth rates of the indicator of the economic stability of the enterprise. Three levels of economic stability of enterprises in the conditions of a dynamic operating environment are considered: high (dynamic), sufficient, unstable. It is substantiated that the results of assessing the level of economic sustainability of enterprises are the basis for making effective management decisions regarding the choice and justification of strategic alternatives for the sustainable development of enterprises in the conditions of a dynamic operating environment. The relationship between the strategic direction of the enterprise’s development and the projected level of the enterprise’s economic sustainability is determined.